What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030. METHODS: Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020-2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies. RESULTS: Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19's impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM). CONCLUSIONS: Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination.

Valuing the Unpaid Contribution of Community Health Volunteers to Mass Drug Administration Programs.

Community health volunteers (CHVs) are being used within a growing number of healthcare interventions, and they have become a cornerstone for the delivery of mass drug administration within many neglected tropical disease control programs. However, a greater understanding of the methods used to value the unpaid time CHVs contribute to healthcare programs is needed. We outline the two main approaches used to value CHVs' unpaid time (the opportunity cost and the replacement cost approaches). We found that for mass drug administration programs the estimates of the economic costs relating to the CHVs' unpaid time can be significant, with the averages of the different studies varying between US$0.05 and $0.16 per treatment. We estimated that the time donated by CHVs' to the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control alone would be valued between US$60 and $90 million. There is a need for greater transparency and consistency in the methods used to value CHVs' unpaid time.

Transitioning from river blindness control to elimination: steps toward stopping treatment.

The transition from onchocerciasis control to elimination requires country programmes to rethink their approach to a variety of activities as they move from addressing morbidity to addressing transmission of the parasite. Although the 2016 WHO guidelines provide extensive recommendations, it was beyond the scope of the document to provide guidance on all aspects of the transition. This paper will discuss some of the important issues that programmes are grappling with as they transition to elimination and provide some potential approaches that programmes can use to address them. Although there are some data to support some aspects of the suggested approaches, operational research will be needed to generate data to support these approaches further and to determine how programmes could best tailor them to their own unique epidemiological challenges. Good communication between the national programmes and the broader global programme will facilitate the clear articulation of programmatic challenges and the development of the evidence to support programme decision-making.

Neglected tropical diseases in Africa: a new paradigm.

Programmes to control onchocerciasis have been ongoing for over 40 years. What was once a devastating blinding and disabling disease, particularly in West Africa, has largely been eliminated at least as a public health problem. Efforts continue to eliminate the transmission of the disease. However, as the elimination agenda has developed so have efforts to control/eliminate other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control will close at the end of 2015. There has been considerable discussion as to what should replace it and the World Health Organization Africa Region has been consulting widely during the first part of 2015 and has established a new project framework that will be presented to a wider group of stakeholders to mobilise support with the aim of the coordination of NTD activities in the region. This will be called the Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN). This will put the countries in the driving seat but offer technical advice, capacity building and financial support, where needed, to enable countries to implement their NTD Master Plans, and also to implement recommendations of the Regional Programme Review Group. An NTD forum will be held periodically to consult with stakeholders.

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment.

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa: possible?

Human onchocerciasis, a parasitic disease found in 28 African countries, six Latin American countries and Yemen, causes blindness and severe dermatological problems. In 1987, efforts to control this infection shifted from vector approaches to include the mass distribution of ivermectin - a drug donated by Merck & Co. for disease control in Africa and for disease elimination in the Americas. Currently, almost 25 years later, with the Americas being highly successful and now approaching elimination, new evidence points towards the possibility of successful elimination in Africa. We suggest several major changes in the programmatic approach that through focused goal-directed effort could achieve global elimination of onchocerciasis by 2025.